“60% chance of a tornado touching down within 50 miles of any listed location”
That’s all I needed to read on weather.com. A friend called me last night to chat, and while chatting she mentioned that the schools were closed Tuesday due to the storm that was coming. I had no idea that there was a storm forecasted for the area.. But for schools to be closed, it must be pretty serious! I scanned the local news stations to read what was going on in the world and found this…
“The TOR:CON (Tornado Conditions Index) for Tuesday and Tuesday night is 6 out of 10 for parts of southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, according to Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel. This means there is a 60 percent chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the specified areas. TOR:CON values as high as 5 out of 10 are posted for Wednesday in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.”
60%!!! Sure enough, schools have been closed in anticipation.
The National Weather Service estimates that more than 7 million people in parts of five states — Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Georgia — are in an area of enhanced risk for a few strong tornadoes and other severe weather during Tuesday’s storms.
Meteorologists at the national Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, say the areas at highest risk of the most dangerous storms will be in southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, along with slivers of northeast Louisiana and northwest Florida. That area includes the cities of Mobile and Hattiesburg, as well as Pearl River, Stone and George counties.
The system will bring “a pretty substantial risk for supercells” that could spawn strong tornadoes, but also lines of storms that pose threats as well, said Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center.
On the Mississippi Coast, storms with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are expected to arrive between 6 p.m. and midnight, and exit the area by 1 a.m. Wednesday.
The weather service in Slidell has issued a wind advisory for 10 a.m. Tuesday until 6 a.m. Wednesday, with gusts up to 40 mph. A small craft advisory is also in effect from 9 a.m. to noon Tuesday and gale warning from noon to 9 a.m. Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to start dropping Wednesday, with lows in the upper 30s by Friday.
In Louisiana, storms could hit the New Orleans area from midafternoon Tuesday through early evening, said Andrew Ansorge, a weather service meteorologist in Louisiana.
The storms are forecast to spread east across Alabama and into Georgia and north Florida, posing a threat into the evening, Carbin said.
In Alabama, a large part of the state will be under an elevated risk of storms late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning, according to forecasts from the weather service. That area — which includes Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile, Auburn and Tuscaloosa — could see tornadoes, winds of up to 70 mph, and quarter-sized hail, the weather service projects.
In Georgia, a total of 3.4 inches of rain is expected in Atlanta from showers and storms Monday through Wednesday, which could produce some flooding, according to forecasts from the weather service’s office in Peachtree City, Georgia.
Please, everyone from Houston Texas to Mobile Alabama .. Please stay safe. You don’t wanna end up like this guy!